What future for the ALDE group: the internal divisions and the potential transformations of the kingmaker of the EP

Because of its central position within the political spectrum, ALDE/ADLE is currently the main kingmaker in the EP. The positions adopted by this political group are often decisive in swinging the outcome of votes, when the two largest groups (EPP and S&D) are in disagreement. For example, this is often the case with regards to environmental policy, where the two largest EU political families are backing different regulatory approaches.

This is the reason why stakeholders that aim at shaping EU legislation seek to get ALDE on their side. However, lobbying the members of this political group is not an easy task, because of its high level of political fragmentation, as well as the internal ideological differences.

Furthermore, the 2019 EU elections might dramatically change ALDE and the EP dynamics as a whole, as several developments will converge, among which: the departure of the British MEPs, the substantial increase of the strength of Macron’s movement, possibly a strengthening of the nationalist forces. Within ALDE in particular, the parties to the right of the group seem to be on a rising trajectory, seemingly forecasting a shift of this group to the economic right in the following years.

We have conducted an 'X-ray' of ALDE that shows the differences between its national delegations and provides insights into the future of this group in the run up to (and after) the next EU elections.

This analysis is part of a series of reports that map the positions adopted by specific Members of the European Parliament (see our previous report on MEP Pietikäinen), national parties, and political groups. VoteWatch will provide extensive research into the positions and work of EU Parliamentarians at an increasing frequency between now and the 2019 European elections.

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