Scenarios: implications of the new Fidesz-PiS-Lega alliance

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The result of the current negotiations for a new political alliance will tell us whether what we are witnessing is geographical clustering (a sign of a rift between “richer” North-Western EU on the one hand and the South and East on the other), or if it’s a broader regrouping of the nationalists across the EU into the main opposition force in the European Parliament. Continue Reading

Impact of EPP-Fidesz divorce to be bigger than expected

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It is hard to overestimate the impact of Fidesz’s choice to leave the EPP group in the European Parliament. In addition to the obvious changes in the balance of power in the EU institutions and the related policy implications, the broader geopolitical dynamics should not be neglected. Concretely, while the departure of Orban’s MEPs facilitates closer cooperation between EPP, Macron’s group and the Social-Democrats, it also deepens the geographical divides between the North-Western EU and (part of) “new Europe”, providing fertile ground for the increasing influence of non-EU players in the EU’s backyard. Continue Reading

MEP Network Analysis: who links with whom in the European Parliament?

This is the first instance of a series providing key insights from our network-analysis of MEPs. Stay tuned for the second part to be published next week. 

Due to the consensus-driven nature of the EP, amendments play a key role in bridging gaps between different factions and finding common positions on the way to the vote. As such, they provide crucial information about the bridge-builders and the hubs of influence. Continue Reading

European Parliament: current and future dynamics

The imminent departure of British MEPs brings further changes to the balance of power in the European Parliament, only a few months after the EP landscape was redrawn by the elections held in May 2019. This generates further confusion at a time when stakeholders are already struggling to engage with an apparently more unpredictable cohort of policymakers. However, the EP’s (and EU’s) decisions are not as unpredictable as commonly thought. Continue Reading

Brexit: the power of data predictions

As the United Kingdom’s withdrawal agreement was supported by an overwhelming 91% of European parliamentarians, the UK will formally leave the European Union as the clock strikes midnight on the 31st of January.

For the past 10 years, VoteWatch has kept the record of how the EU governments make decisions in Brussels. As we indicated on other occasions, an expert look at the data can help you understand the trends and forecast the political future. Continue Reading

New Power Ranking monitoring service: Who will lead the EU into the new decade?

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How powerful are political parties these days? Who are the most powerful players? How is influence shared among factions and sub-factions across the European continent and how will this play out in the next decade? The pace of political changes has significantly accelerated in recent years, creating confusion and unpredictability among stakeholders and citizens. Continue Reading

Which MEPs are the most supportive of migration, EU enlargement, EU social policy?

Creator: Gabor KOVACS
Copyright: CC-BY-4.0:©European Union 2019–Source: EP

A few months into the new EP term, we are already getting a clearer picture as to where different MEPs stand on the most important issues that the EU is dealing with. VoteWatch Europe is keeping track of how each MEP voted on all the issues decided in the European Parliament. We looked closely at all the votes cast so far on 3 of the hottest topics at the moment, namely migration, EU enlargement and employment/social affairs, in order to assess how different political players are positioning themselves. Continue Reading

EP 2019: increasingly fragmented Parliament (fresh projections)

The year of this unprecedented electoral event has started. Five months from now, European citizens will vote for the first time without the British. Euro-critical / eurosceptical forces are trying to organise so that they can challenge the status-quo: today, Salvini meets Kaczynski. What can happen in May’s elections?

Here are some of our latest projections:

– If current trends are confirmed, for the first time in history of the elected EP, the two largest groups (EPP + S&D) would not be able to command a majority of seats. Continue Reading

Winners and losers of EU politics – June 2018 (NATO, posting of drivers, etc)

During June’s plenary session, MEPs took key decisions on the future rules for the workers in the road transportation sector, the future cooperation between the EU and NATO, and debated Rutte’s plans for the future of Europe.

As always, our special report highlights the most disputed issues, who made coalitions with whom, who won and who lost, the oddest voting behavior of EU Parliamentarians (MEPs) and the strangest bedfellows that occurred in Strasbourg. Continue Reading