This report is based on the analysis of actual votes cast in the European Parliament since 2019. The research finds that there is increasing consensus among European factions on how to “deal with Russia”, as even some of the more “moderate” parties have increased in assertiveness after the invasion of Ukraine. Continue Reading
Fresh analysis of VoteWatch data points to an increasing divergence between Lega and its EP group, Identity and Democracy. This is an important development in light of the ongoing EP negotiations to reshape the right-wing camp following Fidesz’s departure from the EPP group. Continue Reading
The result of the current negotiations for a new political alliance will tell us whether what we are witnessing is geographical clustering (a sign of a rift between “richer” North-Western EU on the one hand and the South and East on the other), or if it’s a broader regrouping of the nationalists across the EU into the main opposition force in the European Parliament. Continue Reading
It is hard to overestimate the impact of Fidesz’s choice to leave the EPP group in the European Parliament. In addition to the obvious changes in the balance of power in the EU institutions and the related policy implications, the broader geopolitical dynamics should not be neglected. Concretely, while the departure of Orban’s MEPs facilitates closer cooperation between EPP, Macron’s group and the Social-Democrats, it also deepens the geographical divides between the North-Western EU and (part of) “new Europe”, providing fertile ground for the increasing influence of non-EU players in the EU’s backyard. Continue Reading
This is the first instance of a series providing key insights from our network-analysis of MEPs. Stay tuned for the second part to be published next week.
Due to the consensus-driven nature of the EP, amendments play a key role in bridging gaps between different factions and finding common positions on the way to the vote. As such, they provide crucial information about the bridge-builders and the hubs of influence. Continue Reading
The imminent departure of British MEPs brings further changes to the balance of power in the European Parliament, only a few months after the EP landscape was redrawn by the elections held in May 2019. This generates further confusion at a time when stakeholders are already struggling to engage with an apparently more unpredictable cohort of policymakers. However, the EP’s (and EU’s) decisions are not as unpredictable as commonly thought. Continue Reading
As the United Kingdom’s withdrawal agreement was supported by an overwhelming 91% of European parliamentarians, the UK will formally leave the European Union as the clock strikes midnight on the 31st of January.
For the past 10 years, VoteWatch has kept the record of how the EU governments make decisions in Brussels. As we indicated on other occasions, an expert look at the data can help you understand the trends and forecast the political future. Continue Reading
How powerful are political parties these days? Who are the most powerful players? How is influence shared among factions and sub-factions across the European continent and how will this play out in the next decade? The pace of political changes has significantly accelerated in recent years, creating confusion and unpredictability among stakeholders and citizens. Continue Reading
A few months into the new EP term, we are already getting a clearer picture as to where different MEPs stand on the most important issues that the EU is dealing with. VoteWatch Europe is keeping track of how each MEP voted on all the issues decided in the European Parliament. We looked closely at all the votes cast so far on 3 of the hottest topics at the moment, namely migration, EU enlargement and employment/social affairs, in order to assess how different political players are positioning themselves. Continue Reading
The year of this unprecedented electoral event has started. Five months from now, European citizens will vote for the first time without the British. Euro-critical / eurosceptical forces are trying to organise so that they can challenge the status-quo: today, Salvini meets Kaczynski. What can happen in May’s elections?
Here are some of our latest projections:
– If current trends are confirmed, for the first time in history of the elected EP, the two largest groups (EPP + S&D) would not be able to command a majority of seats. Continue Reading