Which MEPs changed their votes the most in the current EP term?

The European Parliament has a rather unusual mechanism that is known by very few insiders, which allows the MEPs to effectively change the way they voted after a decision has been made. This means that when a decision is made an MEP can vote one way, but then they can change their vote in the minutes (the ‘initial vote’ is still traceable in the minutes). Not surprisingly, this creates confusion as to the actual intention and views of the MEP. Continue Reading

EP2019: group discipline under pressure post-elections?

Guy VERHOFSTADT in plenary session Week 3 2017 in Strasbourg

In politics, strength is in numbers and in the European Parliament this is even more the case, especially after the upcoming European elections which will lead to a highly-fragmented House. So far, the European parliamentary groups have been impressively cohesive/disciplined, if we consider the big cultural and economic diversity of their members. Continue Reading

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VoteWatch Europe is the leading organisation that tracks and forecasts EU political developments, through a unique combination of big political data and expert insights.

Our work is built on two pillars:

1) we follow the dynamics in the EU institutions (majority building, winners and losers, cohesion of the groups) to identify the supporters, opponents and the kingmakers among the EU Parliamentarians on any given policy proposal or broader area;

2) we follow the socio-political trends across the continent (opinion polls, governments’ change) in order to forecast the changes in the balance of power in both the European Parliament and the Council,  and hence the agenda and the margin of maneuver of the European Commission, on any given policy proposal. Continue Reading

EU elections countdown: state of candidates, manifestos, projections

As the EU elections are getting closer, VoteWatch Europe is receiving a huge number of questions from stakeholders and citizenry who are either concerned about possible turns in EU’s policies, or simply want to be ahead of the game with their advocacy campaigns. Here is the kind of questions that we receive on a daily basis and that we work to answer:

– Which MEPs will remain without a job and which will be reelected? Continue Reading

Which EP political groups are actually fake?

Friends of Europe [CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

The next European Parliament will be a more fragmented one, as big groups will dwindle and smaller groups will grow. The EPP+S&D coalition, for example, is likely to fail short of 50% of the seats, for the first time since we hold EU elections.

This will make it much harder to make coalitions, which can explain the moves of some MEPs to try to prevent over-fragmentation by imposing stricter rules on the creation of political groups. Continue Reading

EP2019 projections: 5-Star’s new group, what impact?

As anti-establishment parties attempt to challenge the European Union status-quo, Five Star Movement announced its plans of forming a new group in the European Parliament. This further reinforces projections of an increasingly fragmented EP, but in a different way: whilst fringe groups have been growing and trying to expand their outreach, this new group would in fact fragment the  anti-establishment camp. Continue Reading

EP 2019: increasingly fragmented Parliament (fresh projections)

The year of this unprecedented electoral event has started. Five months from now, European citizens will vote for the first time without the British. Euro-critical / eurosceptical forces are trying to organise so that they can challenge the status-quo: today, Salvini meets Kaczynski. What can happen in May’s elections?

Here are some of our latest projections:

– If current trends are confirmed, for the first time in history of the elected EP, the two largest groups (EPP + S&D) would not be able to command a majority of seats. Continue Reading

5 takeaways from our special event with Prof. Simon Hix

Our latest event on the future of Europe post-2019 featured a brilliant intervention by Prof. Simon Hix (Professor of Political Science at the London School of Economics and Co-Founder of VoteWatch Europe), who provided valuable insights on what might happen next year. Additionally, Doru Frantescu (Director and Co-Founder of VoteWatch Europe) provided key updates on the policy forecasts that VoteWatch Europe is carrying out in the run-up to the European elections.  Continue Reading

Policy forecasts – EU Digital Intellectual Property Rights after 2019

At the beginning of September, we kicked-off our newest series of forecasts on the likely post-electoral policy shifts. After our previous reports on the future direction of EU data protection and trade policies, we are now focusing on the future development of EU policies on Intellectual Property Rights in the digital single market.

This topic is particularly hot due to the recent votes on the introduction of stricter rules on the protection of copyright online. Continue Reading

Winners and Losers of EU politics – Sept. 2018 (IPR, Hungary, forecasts for 2019 and more!)

The last State of the European Union by Juncker, the triggering of art. 7 TEU, and the victory of the coalition advocating for stricter copyright rules in the digital single market are all delved into by our experts in this report. Additionally, we show who EU experts “think” and “hope” to see as Commission President next year. 

Key questions whose answers you will find in this report:

– EU affairs experts expect Manfred Weber to win the EC Presidency race, but if they could choose, they would prefer another person. Continue Reading