Future of the EU: which scenarios are the most likely to unfold?

After the publication of the White Paper on the Future of Europe by the European Commission, several heads of governments explicitly came out in supporting one of the 5 directions outlined by the document. French President, Francois Hollande, warned that without a multi-speed Europe, the European Union would explode. On the other hand, the Visegrad group argued against the multi-speed Europe and a Bulgarian MEP recently compared such a perspective to the apartheid. Continue Reading

How would Fillon’s France change European policy?

by Doru Frantescu and Awenig Marie, with thanks to Davide Ferrari

This is a time of deep political uncertainty in most of the EU’s member states. The British are still to decide their link to Europe, Italians have just ousted their PM, Spaniards are experiencing the hurdles of their first coalition government after prolonged stalemate, while the Polish are redrawing the roles of their own institutions away from Europe. Continue Reading

(Update) What chances for a real European Common Security and Defense Policy?

Note: this analysis, originally published in September, was updated to take into account the latest developments up to 17 November 2016.

Last evening, Doru Frantescu, the Director& cofounder of VoteWatch Europe, delivered an insightful presentation at an event hosted by the Union of European Federalists, where he analysed the chances of building a real European Defense Union.   Continue Reading

Impact of Trump on Europe: first thoughts

Donald Trump is now president-elect, which means he is no longer playing a character. At least not the one that he thought was needed to play in order to gain the votes. Now, he has to act according to a different script.

The United States are a stable democracy with strong institutions which keep each other in check. Hence, we should not expect sudden dramatic developments. In order to forecast what the US policies will actually be during the next 4 years, we have to wait and see what the agreements between Trump and Republican majorities in Congress will be. Continue Reading